How the Consensus Is Built
We don't make predictions. We aggregate what independent, non-sportsbook sources are already saying publicly, and we grade every one of them against the final score so you can see who's actually right over time.
Two independent signal layers
- Computer models. A panel of independent rating systems that publish a predicted result for each game. We record which side each one favors. Many models agreeing is more meaningful than any single opinion.
- Sharp money. Public betting data showing the share of bets versus the share of money on each side. When money outruns bets on a side, that's larger — often sharper — wagers leaning that way.
How the tiers work
- Strong — a clear majority of models on one side, not contradicted by the money or the market.
- Lean — a directional edge: either a model majority, or a thinner model read confirmed by sharp money / the market.
- Split — the signals disagree, or the sample is too thin to mean anything. We say so instead of inventing an edge.
Probability, edge, and best price
Where our tracked models publish win probabilities, we show their average win probability for the consensus side. The edge is that probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability — positive means the models think the side is underpriced, negative means the market already agrees more strongly than the models do. We show negative edges instead of hiding them: a popular pick with no value is exactly the thing you'd want to know about. Best price is the highest available payout for that side among the books and exchanges we monitor — where you bet (and whether you bet) is entirely up to you.
The Iceberg Simulation
A headline pick is just the tip. On every game page, our own engine takes the consensus and the market lines, derives each team's scoring rates, and plays the game out thousands of times with a sport-appropriate model (run distributions for baseball, goals for hockey and soccer, scoring margins for basketball and football). That shows the part of the matchup below the surface: the most likely final score, the odds of going over the total, and how often each side covers. The Iceberg is our model, so it doesn't get a vote in the independent consensus above — it's a bonus view, free like everything else, and it builds its own graded track record.
We're honest about small samples
A single model at "100%" is not a consensus. Model strength is discounted when few sources cover a game, so one source can't manufacture confidence. Win rates under ~100 graded picks are flagged as noise on the track record.
What we don't do
We are not a sportsbook, we take no sportsbook money, and we never present someone else's analysis as our own. We aggregate publicly reported facts — which side each tracked source favors — not their written content. This is information for entertainment, not betting advice. See the full disclaimer.