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Mexico @ Ecuador

World Cup · 2:00 PM ET · Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Split Mexico confidence 21.7/100
Model consensus 1 away · 0 home (1 models)
Win probability 51% (Mexico, model average)
Sharp money no clear split

100% of 1 model away

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations
Win probability Mexico 39% · Ecuador 35% · Draw 26%
Most likely score Mexico 1 – 1 Ecuador (12%)
Total points — simulated distribution
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The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.

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