CIN
@
MIL
Moneyline (straight up)
Strong
MIL
confidence 32.5/100
| Model consensus | 0 away · 2 home (2 models) |
| Win probability | 63% (MIL, model average) |
| Edge vs market | +0.8% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability |
| Best available price | -163 at novig |
| Sharp money | MIL (+4 handle over tickets) |
100% of 2 models home
Against the spread
Lean
CIN
confidence 30.0/100
| Model consensus | 0 away · 0 home (no model line) |
| Sharp money | CIN (+24 handle over tickets) |
sharp money agrees (+24 handle)
Iceberg Simulation
10,000 simulations
Win probability
CIN 40% · MIL 60%
Most likely score
CIN 2 – 3 MIL (2%)
Total 9.5
Over 45% · Under 55%
MIL covers -1.5
44%
Total points — simulated distribution
The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.
Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.
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