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WSH @ BOS

MLB · 7:10 PM ET · Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong BOS confidence 32.5/100
Model consensus 0 away · 2 home (2 models)
Win probability 59% (BOS, model average)
Edge vs market +3.9% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Best available price -125 at novig
Sharp money BOS (+4 handle over tickets)

100% of 2 models home

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations
Win probability WSH 44% · BOS 56%
Most likely score WSH 3 – 4 BOS (2%)
Total 9.5 Over 45% · Under 55%
BOS covers -1.5 42%
Total points — simulated distribution
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The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.

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