NYM @ TOR

MLB · 7:07 PM ET · Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong NYM confidence 56.5/100

Model consensus	2 away · 0 home (2 models)
Win probability	51% (NYM, model average)
Edge vs market	-0.7% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Best available price	-106 at novig
Sharp money	NYM (+16 handle over tickets)

100% of 2 models away; sharp money agrees (+16 handle)

Against the spread

Lean TOR confidence 30.0/100

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	TOR (+25 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+25 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability NYM 50% · TOR 50%

Most likely score NYM 3 – 2 TOR (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 44% · Under 56%

TOR covers -1.5 33%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.